Both labs are still worth more than almost any company on earth. What changed is that investors started setting the price instead of accepting it.

Two numbers landed within days of each other. On November 6 Reuters reported, and TechCrunch relayed, that OpenAI had closed about $11 billion as the first part of a larger round, at a valuation of roughly $1.25 trillion, with SoftBank and MGX among the participants. The company had reportedly been seeking $1.5 trillion. The same week, reports from Bloomberg and The Information described investors preparing for Anthropic's IPO roadshow, due to start the week of November 9, discussing a valuation around $1.2–1.3 trillion, below figures floated in October, with a smaller raise or a short delay both on the table if AI stocks stay volatile.

What is driving the discount

Three things converged.

Public-market volatility. AI-related stocks had a rough week, and public comparables are what IPO investors price against. A private round closed in a drawdown prices the drawdown in.

Capital intensity in plain view. Anthropic's S-1, filed October 26, put first-half 2026 revenue at roughly $16.3 billion alongside a very large net loss and multi-year compute commitments, including a reported ~$19 billion, 20-year data-centre lease. OpenAI has made comparable infrastructure pledges, including a November 5 commitment to pay the full cost of power and grid upgrades for its sites. Investors can now see the bills, not just the growth.

Adoption data. Ramp's spending index, reported by TechCrunch the same day as the OpenAI round, shows the share of US businesses paying for AI tools flattening after two years of growth. Plateauing adoption is survivable; plateauing adoption during an IPO roadshow is awkward.

What has not changed

Revenue growth at both companies remains extraordinary by any historical standard, and both rounds are still being filled. A $1.25 trillion valuation is a discount to a wish, not a crisis. The IPO itself is the first chance for the public market to price a frontier lab directly, and every private AI valuation on the street will be re-marked against where it trades in the first month.

What to watch

• The amended S-1 with a price range: that is the moment the roadshow is real.
• First-month trading in ANT, and whether OpenAI's remaining round closes at the same $1.25 trillion or lower.
• Enterprise pricing moves from both labs over the next two quarters; pressure on valuation tends to show up as pressure on list prices.

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